of a climate theory developed by Maurice Ewing and William Donn, published in the 1950's. Amazingly, they built their theory without ice core data, which now provide abundant support. The ice core data indicates that there is a thermostat with a fixed set point in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), and there is powerful forcing that prevents temperature from going out of bounds. The thermostat's set point is the temperature that oceans freeze and thaw. Powerful snowfall from thawed oceans will always limit the upper bound. Lack of snowfall from frozen oceans will always limit the lower bound.
In between the upper and lower bounds, there are correlations with other factors, so we need to understand all of them. But the upper and lower bounds only need and have one factor: the amount of ice on land. The ice on land always increases when oceans are warm and thawed and depletes when they are cold and frozen. The Infrared radiation (IR) always works in the right direction, radiating more energy out when earth is warmer and less when it is colder. IR lacks a thermostat with a fixed set point. Solar cycles push temperature around, and those correlations are powerful and take front stage on the skeptical side, but they fail when temperature should go out of bounds.
Over the past 50 million years, the temperature changed from 14 degrees warmer than now, to 6 degrees colder. However, the temperature was always bounded. It cycled up and down, the bounds did change, but there were always bounds. The bounds changed as the amount of ice on land changed. The upper and lower bounds stayed close together. The wider bounds of the major ice ages, of the past million years, were still bounded.
Many things influence climate. IR does most of the cooling, but it does not have a thermostat that has a fixed set point. The solar cycles and the orbit cycles correlate with much of the data but not with all of them. Temperature gets pushed around by many things, but it never gets pushed out of bounds. The changes, summer and winter, day and night, sunny and cloudy, all show that temperature responds quickly and must always be close to equilibrium.
Solar cycles cannot explain the changes, and lack of changes, over the past million to fifty million years, especially not the most recent twenty thousand years. The amount of ice on land can explain these changes. There is always more ice on land in cold times and less in warm times. People call this a result; but most cannot explain the causes. The coldest times had the most ice on land, but that was the cause, not the result. Nothing in the other factors could have caused more ice on land. The only factor that can cause more ice on land is warm thawed water in cold regions to produce snowfall. It does not snow enough if it gets cold first, and the snowfall decreases when the oceans freeze.
Over the past fifty million years, continents drifted, ocean currents changed, and more and more warm water circulated in cold regions to promote more snowfall on land. The warmest water circulated in polar regions during the major warm periods of the recent million years before twenty thousand years ago, when oceans were higher and warmer. This promoted the snowfall that placed the most ice on land for the major ice ages. The long cold periods were long because it takes a long time to melt that much ice.
Over the most recent ten thousand years, because of changes in the Milankovich cycles (earth orbit and tilt changes), solar energy into the NH has decreased while solar energy into the SH has increased, yet the ice core data for the NH and SH stayed bounded in the same bounds.
One can express this climate theory, in an elevator version, on the back of a business card.
Oceans warm, polar oceans thaw, snowfall increases, replenishing ice on Antarctica, Greenland and mountain glaciers. Ice builds up and spreads out, dumping ice and ice cold water into the oceans and on land until earth cools. Polar oceans freeze and the sun takes away ice every year until earth warms again. It is a natural cycle and we did not cause it. CO2 just makes the green stuff grow better with less water.
Another elevator version goes this way.
About 2000 years ago, there was a Roman Warm Period and then it got cold. About 1000 years ago, there was a Medieval Warm Period and then it got cold in the Little Ice Age. It is warm now because it is supposed to be warm now. It is a natural cycle and we did not cause it. CO2 just makes green things grow better, while using less water.
Like this theory? Share it with others. Disagree? Help me figure out what is right.
The Supreme Court's recent stay of the EPA's "Clean Power Plan" means the states and many businesses that sued will get their case reviewed. The EPA and the administration must wait until judicial review is completed in order to put their oppressive measures in place, to end fossil fuel use. Those who will speak to the courts need to know there are well qualified scientists who disagree with Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) theory that is the basis for the plan.
Herman A. (Alex) Pope is a retired Aerospace Engineer