Climate Model Output does not look like actual Earth Data
Earth Temperature Data shows that Earth Temperature has a set point and Temperature has stayed within plus or minus two degrees C for all of ten thousand years. Temperature has stayed within one degree of this set point for most of the past ten thousand years. Today, Temperature is within the plus one degree bound.
Climate Temperature data is jagged. Climate Model output is smooth. They are not modeling the same thing. They do not use the same theory. They do not have Theory or Models with a set point and powerful response to temperature that tries to get out of bounds. The real temperature data is based on the real Climate. The nature of the model output is totally different than measured data. I have measured the temperature data in my house. In summer, the temperature jags up until the AC turns on. Then it jags down until the AC turns off. That is not difficult to Model or Curve fit or Simulate. This is exactly what the Earth temperature looks like. Temperature is increasing or decreasing. Temperature does not change in a smooth manner. When the AC is off, the sun warms the earth and causes ice extent to receed. When the AC is on the snowfall causes the ice extent to advance and that cools the earth. There is no better explanation than this. The set point is the temperature at which Sea Ice Melts and Freezes, especially in the Arctic. All the other forcings do have an influence on the magnitude and slope of these temperature changes, but the thermostat comes on when needed and goes off when not needed based on how much liquid water is available to put moisture in the atmosphere.
To match the actual data, a proper Climate Theory must have a set point for a thermostat and a powerful method for cooling that always works. The sun always warms the earth. When Sea Water is frozen, especially in the Arctic, it cannot snow enough to stop the warming. When the Sea Ice is thawed, especially in the Arctic, it always snows enough to overcome the warming. It is not just the Arctic Sea Ice, early snows around the Arctic changes the pattern for the rest of the cold season even after the Arctic refreezes for that year. It is almost May of 2013 and snow is still falling since record snows last October.
Look at the nature of the data. No other theory that I have studied can match the cycles. No other theory can switch on just because it got warm or switch off just because it got cold. The actual Earth Temperature data shows that this is happening. It always gets cooler to stop a warming. It always gets warmer after a cooling. In response to this and other forcing, the pattern is irregular. Earth temperature is never smooth like model output. The cooling is on or the cooling is off. If this was included in climate models their output would have realistic zigs and zags and would not extrapolate off to temperatures not seen in real data. You could run a model for ten thousand years, hit it with all kinds of disturbances, and it would not get out of bounds.
Manmade CO2 may or may not add significant heat. It does not matter. The thermostat is triggered by the temperature that Arctic Sea Ice Melts and the upper bound of temperature will be maintained at the same levels as during the past ten thousand years with as much snow as needed, every time. The AC runs as much as necessary to maintain the upper bound.
You can throw the solar cycles on this, the ocean cycles, the Milankovitch cycles, eleven year cycles, sixty year cycles, CO2 cycles, volcanoes, aerosols, black soot and whatever else and the model output would still be realistic.